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Government Bond Data Report: Q2 2017
24 Sep 2017
AFME is pleased to circulate its Q2 2017 Government Bond Data Report. This report provides a comprehensive data source with updated statistics of the Government bond primary and secondary markets in Europe (EU28). Among the main findings of this report: Average daily trading volumes of EU sovereign bonds increased 9.8% when comparing 2Q17 with 2Q16. The annual increase, however, does not significantly improve the decreasing trend in trading activity for many countries in recent years, particularly illustrated by the turnover ratio. The YoY increase in trading volume was primarily driven by significantly higher activity in France, as well as the UK. European Government bond gross issuance totalled €626.8 bn in 2Q17, a decrease of 8.7% from the volume originated in 1Q17 (€686.3 bn). Comparing issuance in 1H17 with 1H16, there has been a shift to longer dated debt, as bond issuance has increased 5.7%, whereas bill issuance has decreased 14.4%. Sovereign green bond (SGB) issuance: After Poland issued the first SGB in December 2016 (a €750m 5-year bond), France followed with the issuance of a €7bn 22-year green bond in January 2017. The French SGB was reopened in June 2017 to increase the issuance size from €7bn to €8.63bn, and thus further growing the size of the fledgling market. Average bid-cover ratios was 2.11 in 2Q17, a slight increase compared to 1Q17, but still close to the lowest value of 2.07 since 2011. The year so far has seen nine long-term credit rating upgrades for EU countries compared to one downgrade, reflecting a general trend of increasing credit ratings for Southern and Eastern European countries. Annual change in Government Bond average trading volumes (2Q17 vs 2Q16) Selected European jurisdictions Source: AFME with information from European DMOs and other agency sources and Trax, a MarketAxess subsidiary
Julio Suarez
Prudential Data Report Q2 2017
25 Aug 2017
AFME is pleased to circulate its Q2 2017 Prudential Data Report. The report provides a timely update (as at June 2017) on the progress of EU GSIBs in implementing the Basel III capital and liquidity standard. The report also illustrates the recent performance of the debt and contingent convertibles (CoCo) markets for banks in Europe. We have refreshed the layout and content. Please contact us if you have any comments or suggestions that can help us improve how we present this timely information. Main findings: EU GSIBs increased their end-point CET1 ratio to 13.4% in 2Q17, from 12.93% in 1Q17. The quarterly increase in CET1 ratio was driven by retained earnings (22bps), further RWA reductions including from large asset disposals by two banks (11 bps) and other factors including large rights issues by two banks (14 bps). EU banks have raised a total of €49.3bn in new capital from markets during the year (as of mid-August 2017), almost double the total accumulated during the full year of 2016 (€26.0bn). CoCo issuance on track to exceed 2016 full year issuance. European banks have issued a total of €22.7 bn in CoCo bonds during the year, just below the total issued in 2016FY (€23.5bn). Lower CoCo risk premia. Average coupons of the fixed rate CoCo instruments issued in the first half of 2017 stood at 6.42%, which represents a decrease from the coupons of the instruments issued in 2016 (7.54%). The decline has been largely driven by a decrease in risk premia (as measured by CoCo option-adjusted spreads, OAS), from 520bps on average in 2016FY to 440bps in 1H17.
European High Yield & Leveraged Loan Report Q2 2017
22 Aug 2017
The AFME High Yield Division is pleased to circulate the Quarterly Data Report for the second quarter of 2017 (the “Report”). The Report contains European leveraged finance market trends for the second quarter of 2017, which includes issuance and credit performance figures for the high yield and leveraged loan markets. Key highlights: European leveraged finance issuance (leveraged loans and high yield bonds) decreased in 2Q’17 to €72.9 billion, a 19.6% decrease from €90.6 billion in 1Q’17 but a 16.3% increase from €62.6 billion issued in 2Q’16. This was, however, the second highest quarterly issuance since 2Q’14 after the record issuance in 1Q’17. Leveraged loan issuance, including first lien, second lien, and mezzanine financing, decreased to €37.4 billion in 2Q’17, down 31.3% q-o-q (€54.5 billion in 1Q’17) but up 24.1% y-o-y (€30.1 billion in 2Q’16).In 2Q’17, only €2.0 billion of amend-and-extend (“A&E”) loans were financed, a significant decrease from €16.3 billion in 1Q’17 but an increase from €0.3 billion in 2Q’16.Pricing spreads for institutional loans tightened by 7 basis points (bps) q-o-q and by 37 bps y-o-y while spreads for pro rata loans tightened by 24 bps q-o-q and by 6 bps y-o-y. Primary high yield issuance in 2Q’17 totalled €35.4 billion on 79 deals, a 1.9% decrease from 1Q’17 (€36.1 billion on 78 deals) but a 9.1% increase from 2Q’16 (€32.5 billion on 56 deals).The proportion of USD-denominated issuance increased to 45.4% of all issuance in 2Q’17, compared to 39.1% in 1Q’17 but a decrease from 51.4% in 2Q’16.High yield issuance for refinancing and/or repayment of debt in developed market Europe decreased to €8.7 billion, representing 34.5% of all issuance in 2Q’17, down from €12.1 billion (43.3% of total) in 1Q’17 and from €14.1 billion (48.8% of total) in 2Q’16. In emerging market Europe, €0.3 billion in high yield debt was issued for refinancing and/or repayment of debt in the second quarter of 2017, which was an increase from no issuance for this purpose in both 1Q’17 and 2Q’16. Credit quality: According to Standard and Poor’s (S&P), in 2Q’17 upgrades exceeded downgrades in developed market Europe (29 upgrades to 26 downgrades), a slightly worse ratio than 37 upgrades to only 16 downgrades in 1Q’17 but more positive than 33 upgrades to 46 downgrades in 2Q’16. Seven bond-related defaults were reported in the second quarter of 2017, five in developed market Europe and two in emerging market Europe.Speculative-grade bond default rates stood at 2.1% according to S&P (unchanged from 2.1% at end-March 2017) and 2.8% according to Moody’s (up from 2.5% at end-March 2017).According to Fitch, the trailing 12-month European leveraged loan default rate stood at 1.4%, up from 1.0% at end-March 2017.
Equity Primary Markets and Trading Report: 1H 2017
18 Jul 2017
AFME is pleased to circulate its Equity Primary Markets and Trading Report for the first half of 2017 (1H 2017). The report collates the performance of the equity market in Europe in areas such as issuance, Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A), trading and valuations. Key highlights: Equity underwriting (IPOs, follow-ons and convertibles) on European exchanges accumulated a total of €127.9 bn in proceeds in 1H 2017, a 61% increase from 1H 2016 (€79.7 bn). The increase was led by a 93% year-to-date (YtD) growth in follow-on offerings- the largest 1H volume since 2009; Increase of 11% YtD in proceeds from primary offerings (IPOs). Completed Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) of European companies totalled €476.9 bn in 1H 2017, a decrease of 9% from 1H 2016 (€521.5 bn) Fewer leveraged M&A transactions in 1H 2017, with a decline of 31% in the volume of transactions in 1H 2016; Growing appetite from APAC firms. Chinese firms represented 33% of total inbound M&A in 1H 2017. Equity trading activity onEuropean main markets and MTFs generated a total of €6.0 tn in turnover value in 1H 2017, a decrease of 6% from the value traded in 1H 2016 (€6.3 tn). Market capitalisation of European listed shares stood at €13.2 tn at the end of 1H 2017, an increase of 9% from the market value at the end of 2016 (€12.1 tn). Year-to-date variation of European Equity activity (EU 28 member countries and Switzerland) Source: Dealogic, Bats Chi-X, FESE, World Federation of Exchanges, LSEG, ECB, NASDAQ Nordic, Bucharest Stock Exchange and CEESEG - Prague
Government Bond Data Report Q1 2017
29 Jun 2017
AFME is pleased to circulate its Q1 2017 Government Bond Data Report. This report provides a comprehensive data source with updated statistics of the Government bond primary and secondary markets in Europe (EU28). Among the main findings of this report: Average daily trading volumesof EU government bonds increased 14% QoQ in 1Q17 and 16% YoY, with notable differences between countries (see chart below). EU average turnover ratio increased by 7% in 1Q17 against the previous quarter. European Government bond gross issuance totalled €684 bn in 1Q17, a decrease of 3.9% from the volume originated in 1Q16 (€712 bn). Of the instruments issued in 1Q 2017 through auctions, average bid-cover ratios (demand/amount allocated) was 2.07 in 1Q17, a decrease compared to 2.26 in 4Q16 and 2.08 in 1Q16. The maturity profile of EU sovereigns has continued to shift towards long-term debt securities. Over the last year, outstanding government bond debt with tenors of 15 years or above has increased by 4%, compared with an increase of 1% in 5-10 year bonds and a decrease of 0.2% for <5 year bonds. Long-term credit ratings were reaffirmed for the large majority of EU countries. One EU country (Cyprus) had its long-term credit rating upgraded during the quarter. There were no credit rating downgrades during the quarter. Quarterly change in Government Bond average trading volumes (1Q17 vs 4Q16) Selected European jurisdictions Source: AFME with information from European DMOs and other agency sources and Trax, a MarketAxess subsidiary
European High Yield & Leveraged Loan Report Q1 2017
31 May 2017
The AFME High Yield Division is pleased to circulate the Quarterly Data Report for the first quarter of 2017 (the “Report”) The Report contains European leveraged finance market trends for the first quarter of 2017, which includes issuance and credit performance figures for the high yield and leveraged loan markets. Key highlights: European leveraged finance issuance (leveraged loans and high yield bonds) increased in 1Q’17 to €86.5 billion, a 50.5% increase from €57.4 billion in 4Q’16 and almost double the €43.5 billion issued in 1Q’16. This was the highest quarterly issuance since 2Q’14. Leveraged loan issuance increased to €50.8 billion in the first quarter of 2017, up 19.9% q-o-q (€42.4 billion in 4Q’16), up 54.2% y-o-y (€33.0 billion in 1Q’16). This was the highest quarterly total since the financial crisis. Most of the loans issued in 1Q’17 were 1st lien loans; there were no mezzanine loans and one 2nd lien loan financed. Pricing spreads for institutional loans widened by 12 basis points (bps) q-o-q and by 13 bps y-o-y while spreads for pro rata loans tightened by 27 bps q-o-q but by 12 bps y-o-y. Primary high yield issuance in 1Q’17 totalled €35.7 billion on 76 deals, a 136.8% increase from 4Q’16 (€15.1 billion on 41 deals) and a 237.4% increase from 1Q’16 (€10.6 billion on 22 deals). The proportion of USD-denominated issuance increased to 41.3% of all issuance in 1Q’17, compared to 29.1% in 4Q’16 and 28.2% in 1Q’16. Issuance for refinancing and/or repayment of debt in developed market Europe decreased to €11.8 billion, representing 42.8% of all issuance in 1Q’17, up from €4.6 billion (45.4% of total) in 4Q’16 and from €1.3 billion (14.1% of total) in 1Q’16. In emerging market Europe, no high yield debt was issued for refinancing and/or repayment of debt in 1Q’17. Credit quality: According to S&P, upgrades exceeded downgrades in developed market Europe (37 upgrades to 16 downgrades), a much better ratio than 26 upgrades to 33 downgrades in 4Q’16 and 20 upgrades to 40 downgrades in 1Q’16. It was the lowest downgrade percentage of a total since 2Q’14.Seven bond-related defaults were reported in the first quarter of 2017, six in developed market Europe and one in emerging market Europe.Speculative-grade default rates stood at 2.1% according to S&P (up from 1.4% at end-December 2016) and 2.5% according to Moody’s (up from 2.1% at end-December 2016).
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