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Julio Suarez
AFME Securitisation Data Snapshot Report Q2 2021
19 Jul 2021
AFME is pleased to circulate the European Securitisation Data Snapshot for Q2 2021. Key highlights: Q2 2021 European Issuance In Q2 2021, EUR 36.4 bn of securitised product was issued in Europe, a decrease of 25.6% from Q1 2021 (EUR 48.9 bn) and a decrease of 26.0% from Q2 2020 (EUR 49.2 bn). Of this, EUR 26.1 bn was placed, representing 71.7% of the total, compared to EUR 30.0 bn placed in Q1 2021 (representing 61.3% of EUR 48.9 bn) and EUR 14.1 bn placed in Q2 2020 (representing 28.6% of EUR 49.2 bn). In Q2 2021, Pan-European CLOs led placed totals, followed by UK RMBS and German Auto ABS. Pan-European CLOs increased from EUR 6.6 bn in Q1 2021 to EUR 8.1 bn in Q2 2021. UK RMBS decreased from EUR 12.7 bn in Q1 2021 to EUR 2.9 bn in Q2 2021. German Auto ABS increased from EUR 1.5 bn in Q1 2021 to EUR 2.5 bn in Q2 2021.
Julio Suarez
AFME Government Bond Data Report Q1 2021
29 Jun 2021
AFME is pleased to circulate itsQ1 2021 Government Bond Data Report. Please note, this data report has been updated following last minute updates to the number of PDs in two countries as follows: Net increase in European Primary Dealers: There were 3 exits and 6 entries of banks between January 2021 and June 2021, affecting sovereign debt markets in 8 countries. This report provides a comprehensive data source with updated statistics on the Government bond primary and secondary markets in Europe (EU27+UK). Report highlights include: Sovereign debt issuance continues above pre-pandemic levels: Total European (EU+UK) issuance stood at EUR 923.9bn in 1Q21, an increase of 50.3% (QoQ) compared to 4Q20, and an increase of 26.6% (YoY) compared to 1Q20. EU green government bonds outstanding surpassed EUR 94.2bn in 1Q21. EUR 18.6bn of green bonds were issued in 1Q21– the highest quarterly issuance volume in records. Volumes were driven primarily by the inaugural Italian green bond (EUR 8.5 bn), a new French OAT green issue (EUR 7bn) and additional volumes added to the market via tap issuance in the Belgian and Dutch green markets. ESG bond issuance - half of European sovereign issuers set to be active in ESG markets by end-2021. As Italy joins 10 other European government issuers and the European Commission as active participants in European sovereign ESG markets, another 6 sovereigns have indicated they will bring inaugural ESG issuance to the market before the end of 2021. European government bond trading robust in Q1 2021 as volumes represent the second-highest quarterly traded volume since Q1 2017, according to MarketAxess. Credit quality: During 1Q21 there was 1 long-term credit rating upgrade for European countries and 0 downgrades, bringing the full year total to 2 upgrades and 0 downgrades (there has been 1 further upgrade in 2Q21 to date. The average bid-cover ratio (demand/amount allocated) was 2.28 in 1Q21, a decrease of 8.51% (QoQ) from 4Q21 and an increase of 5.7% from 1Q20 (YoY).
Julio Suarez
AFME Securitisation Data Report Q1 2021
15 Jun 2021
AFME is pleased to circulate its Q1 2021 Securitisation Data Report. Please note that due to ongoing revisions to the data, US non-agency issuance volumes have been revised upwards for 2019-2020. Most recent quarterly issuance data volumes (Q1 2021) concerning the US non-agency RMBS, CMBS and CDO categories likely to be revised upwards next quarter. Main findings: In Q1 2021, EUR 48.9bn of securitised product was issued in Europe, a decrease of 25.9% from Q4 2020 and an increase of 18.7% from Q1 2020. Of the EUR 48.9bn issued, EUR 30.0bn was placed, representing 61.3% of issuance, compared to the 39.4% of issuance in Q4 2020 and 58.0% of issuance in Q1 2020. Outstanding volumes (ex-CLOs) decreased slightly to EUR 987.8bn outstanding at the end of Q1 2021, a decrease of 0.5% QoQ and a decrease of 0.3% YoY. Credit Quality: In Europe, upgrades outpaced downgrades in Q1 2021, as the proportion of upgrades as a percentage of ratings actions recovered substantially to 76% of total rating actions following a fall during 2020 due to the economic effects of the pandemic. STS issuance: In Q1 2021, EUR 11.3 bn of total (placed and retained) securitised product was notified as Simple Transparent and Standardised (STS) by ESMA, representing 23.1% of total issued volume in Q1 2021 (EUR 48.9bn). Out of the EUR 11.3bn in STS issuance, EUR 6.9bn was placed, representing 23.0% of total placed issuance in Q1 2021 (EUR 30.0bn) STS issuance: Over the last three years, placed non-STS issuance has consistently made up more than double the amount of placed STS issuance in the EU+UK.
Julio Suarez
AFME Prudential Data Report - 2021 Q1
11 Jun 2021
This report collates information on European GSIBs’ prudential capital, leverage and liquidity ratios with updated statistics as at 31 March 2021. It also illustrates the recent performance of the debt and contingent convertibles (CoCo) markets and the funding structure for banks in Europe as at May 2021. Among the main findings of this report: CET1 capital ratio reaches a new record high: European systemically important banks (GSIBs) continued to comply with the minimum required solvency and liquidity ratios to support businesses navigate the economic recovery. European Contingent Convertibles’ (CoCo) borrowing costs reach record low: In the first months of Q2 2021, borrowing costs for Additional Tier 1 (AT1) fixed coupon instruments reached a record low reflected with an average coupon of 4.2% for newly originated CoCos. Exception circumstance for Leverage Ratio exposure measure: The Box on pages 21-24 discusses the importance of extending the period of exceptional circumstances for the temporary exclusion of certain central bank exposures from the leverage ratio (LR). Given the continued economic strain, quantitative easing measures and extraordinary levels of Member States and EU bond issuance, it would be premature for the ECB Banking Supervision to exit the ‘exceptional circumstances’ in June 2021.
Julio Suarez
AFME European High Yield and Leveraged Loan Report Q1 2021
26 May 2021
The Report contains European leveraged finance market trends for the first quarter of 2021, which includes issuance and credit performance figures for the high yield and leveraged loan markets. Key highlights: European leveraged finance issuance (leveraged loans and high yield bonds) accumulated €107.7 billion in proceeds in 1Q’21, a 73.8% increase from €62.0 billion in 4Q’20 and a 14.1% increase from €94.4 billion in 1Q’20. This quarterly growth was driven predominantly by an increase in leveraged loan issuance. Primary high yield bond issuance totalled €41.6 billion on 93 deals in 1Q’21, a 24.4% increase from €33.4 billion on 83 deals in 4Q’20 and a 42.5% increase from €29.2 billion on 71 deals in 1Q’20. The proportion of USD-denominated issuance decreased to 17.1% of all issuance in 1Q’21, from 21.0% in 4Q’20 and from 24.2% in 1Q’20. The leading use of proceeds for high yield bonds issuance in 1Q’21 was general corporate purposes with €32.3 billion, which was up 26.8% from €25.5 billion in 4Q’20 and up 145.5% from €13.2 billion in 1Q’20. Leveraged loan issuance, including first lien, second lien, and mezzanine financing, totalled €66.1 billion on 143 deals in 1Q’21, up 131.6% from €28.5 billion on 100 deals in 4Q’20 and up 1.4% from €65.2 billion on 83 deals in 1Q’20. Refinancing/Repayment of Debt was the largest use of proceeds in 1Q’21 with €44.4 billion, followed by LBO/MBO of debt with €13.3 billion and acquisitions with €6.5 billion. According to Reorg, the vast majority of 1Q’21 European leverage loan deals (97%) were covenant-lite. The remaining 3% of 1Q’21 deals were covenant-loose, containing a leverage maintenance. According to Covenant Review, 36% of all leveraged loan deals reviewed in 1Q’21 contained an ESG feature, compared to just 4.9% of all deals reviewed in 2020FY. Credit quality: S&P reported the trailing 12-month speculative-grade bond default rate at 5.9% in March 2021, an increase from 5.3% in December 2020. Moody’s reported the trailing 12-month speculative-grade default rate at 4.7% in March 2021, down from 4.9% in December 2020. Fitch reported an increase in European Leveraged Loan default rates at 5.1% in March 2021 (including c* and cc* rated issuers as if those had already defaulted), an increase of 0.2% since December 2020. 6 bond-related defaults were reported in 1Q’21 by S&P and Moody’s, all in developed market Europe. Distressed exchange was the most frequent reason for default. According to Moody’s, in 1Q’21 upgrades exceeded downgrades in Europe (35 upgrades to 13 downgrades). This is an improvement on 30 downgrades to 10 upgrades in 4Q’20 and 78 downgrades to 4 upgrades in 1Q’20. S&P also reported an improvement in the downgrades-upgrades ratio. According to S&P, in 1Q’21 downgrades exceeded upgrades in Europe (24 downgrades to 22 upgrades), a better ratio than 43 downgrades to 14 upgrades in 4Q’20 and 78 downgrades to 4 upgrades in 1Q’20.
Julio Suarez
AFME Equity Primary Markets and Trading Report Q1 2021
19 May 2021
AFME is pleased to circulate its Equity Primary Markets and Trading Report for the first quarter of 2021 (Q1 2021). The report provides an update on the performance of the equity market in Europe in activities such as primary issuance, Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A), trading, and equity valuations Key highlights: Large increase in equity capital raising: Equity underwriting on European exchanges rose 153% YoY, consolidating a robust recovery after the COVID-19 outbreak. IPOs rose by 18x year-on-year (YoY) with the largest quarterly amount of proceeds since Q4 2015. Completed Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) of European companies totalled €275.2bn in Q1 2021a 43% increase from the amount completed in Q1 2020 (€192.7bn). The amount of announced M&A totalled €311.4bn in Q1 2021 a 51% increase from €205.8bn in Q1 2020. Special Feature: European SPACs in numbers. Pages 11-14 present some illustrative statistics about the recent growth of Special Purpose Acquisition Companies (SPAC) IPOs on European exchanges and announced M&A transactions by SPACs in Europe (i.e. De-SPACs). SPAC IPOs have represented 8.8% of total European IPOs in 2021YtD (vs. 61.8% of the total in the US). De-SPAC acquisitions have represented 10% of the total announced M&A volume in Europe (vs 22% of the total in the US). Of these announced acquisitions, 89% are De-SPACs of US-headquartered SPACs, representing a total of EUR 33.3bn in deal value. Average daily equity trading activity on European main markets and MTFs stood at €71.6bn in Q1 2021, 16% below the average daily value observed in Q1 2020 (€85.7bn). Bid-ask spreads for selected European equity indices continued to decline during Q1 2021, reaching most recently pre-pandemic levels. Double Volume Cap (DVC) update: The number of instruments banned from dark trading has recently increased to 250 at the EU or trading venue level as of May 2021 (from 205 in Dec-20).
Julio Suarez
AFME European ESG Finance Quarterly Data Report: Q1 2021
10 May 2021
AFME is pleased to circulate its European ESG Finance quarterly data report for the first quarter of 2021 (Q1 2021). The aim of this quarterly report is to provide detailed data and analysis on the rapidly growing Sustainable Finance market in Europe. This Report contains up to date trends for the European Sustainable Finance market as at 31 March 2021 as well as a high-level regulatory and supervisory snapshot. Key highlights: ESG bond and loan issuance continues to rapidly grow in Q1 2021. During Q1 2021, European ESG Bond and Loan issuance accumulated EUR 184.0 bn in proceeds, up 228% from EUR 56.1 bn in Q1 2020 and up 19.8% from EUR 153.6 bn in Q4 2020. ESG bond issuance represented 17.2% of total European bond issuance during Q1 2021, up from 8.9% in 2020FY. 63.5% of ESG bonds were issued in the Sovereign, Supranational and Agency sector, 18% by Financial Institutions, 18% by non-financial corporates and 0.4% in ABS/RMBS. The EU Commission (on behalf of the EU) has continued to lead the ESG market with EUR 36bn in social bonds issued during Q1 2021. ESG securitisation issuance reached EUR 1.1bn in Q1 2021, surpassing the total amount issued during 2020FY (EUR 0.8bn). European carbon prices reach record high. The European Union Allowance (EuA) price per metric tonne stood at €42.4 in March 2021 a 150% increase from €16.8 in March 2020. Most recently, EU carbon prices temporarily surpassed €50 per metric tonne as of early May 2021. There is significant dispersion in the price of pollution globally. The EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) had the highest allowance price globally, followed by the Switzerland ETS at €39.25, and the New Zealand ETS at €22.1 as of end Q1 2021. Contrastingly, the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (USA) has an allowance price of only €7.0. Global ESG Funds continued to grow exponentially during Q1 2021. Funds with an ESG mandate (including Mutual Funds and ETFs) totalled $4.3tn as of Q1 2021, a $1.7tn increase from $2.6tn in Q1 2020. ESG equity funds continue to be by far the largest fund asset class, over 3x larger than fixed income funds. Spreads of Green and ESG bonds against non-sustainable benchmarks (“Greenium”) have continued to tighten during 2021. ESG premia has tightened from 9bps in April 2020 to 1bp on average in April 2021. According to AFME estimates, green premia has significantly tightened for corporate green instruments closer to virtually zero bps in April 2021. There are various factors that may explain the decline in ESG and green premia, including the substantial increase in supply of new ESG and green instruments.
Julio Suarez
AFME Securitisation Data Snapshot: Q1 2021
21 Apr 2021
AFME is pleased to circulate the European Securitisation Data Snapshot for Q1 2021 Key highlights: Q1 2021 European Issuance In Q1 2021, EUR 48.6 bn of securitised product was issued in Europe , a decrease of 26.3% from Q4 2020 (EUR 66.0 bn) and an increase of 18.0% from Q1 2020 (EUR 41.2 bn) Of this, EUR 30.0 bn was placed, representing 62.0% of the total, compared to EUR 26.0 bn placed in Q4 2020 (representing 39.4% of EUR 66.0 bn) and EUR 23.9 bn placed in Q1 2020 (representing 58.0% of EUR 41.2 bn) In Q1 2021, UK RMBS led placed totals, followed by Pan-European CLOs and Dutch RMBS. UK RMBS increased from EUR 0.3 bn in Q4 2020 to EUR 12.7 bn in Q1 2021 Pan-European CLOs decreased from EUR 7.0 bn in Q4 2020 to EUR 6.6 bn in Q1 2021 Dutch RMBS increased from EUR 0.7 bn in Q4 2020 to EUR 2.3 bn in Q1 2021
Julio Suarez
AFME Prudential Data Report 4Q2020
22 Mar 2021
This report collates information on European GSIBs’ prudential capital, leverage and liquidity ratios with updated statistics as at 31 December 2020. It also illustrates the recent performance of the debt and contingent convertibles (CoCo) markets and the funding structure for banks in Europe for the full year 2020 and updated as at March 2021. Among the main findings of this report: European systemically important banks (GSIBs) reported in 4Q20 new record CET1, T1 capital, TLAC, Leverage and Liquidity Coverage ratios allowing them to continue to support the economic recovery. External capital raising in 2020 above 2019 amount: The amount of new capital raised during 2020FY by European banks totalled EUR 34.4 bn, slightly above the level observed in 2019 (EUR 34.3bn). The amount of fresh capital raised was predominantly in the form of contingent convertible (CoCo) bonds. Most recently, in 2021 YtD (as of mid-March) European banks have accumulated a total of EUR 5.2bn in new fresh capital, of which EUR 4.8bn was in the form of CoCos. Banks continued to extended their debt maturity profile. The proportion of long-term debt (>10Y) has continued to increase in both relative and absolute terms over the last year, increasing from €360bn (17%) in 1Q20 to €387bn (18%) in 1Q21. The proportion of short-term debt (<1Y maturity) has decreased from 20% in 1Q20 of total market debt to 16% in 1Q21. Contribution of the Banking sector and European capital markets in financing the recovery: The Box on pages 21-28 provides a summary with the contribution of the Banking sector and European capital markets in financing the recovery - one year after the COVID-19 outbreak. Banks interacting in the European market have continued to support the economic recovery, with unprecedented volumes of loans to corporates and SMEs, record volumes of trading and primary markets origination, and orderly post-trade activities. Corporate borrowers raised a record amount of debt from markets during 2020, with a total of EUR 495bn in investment grade bond issuance. European governments issued a record of EUR 3.7 tn in bonds and bills from markets, as European sovereigns contend with the funding demands. European ESG bond issuance totalled a record of EUR 252.6 bn in 2020, from EUR 133.9 bn in 2019.
Julio Suarez
AFME Government Bond Data Report Q4 2020
17 Mar 2021
AFME is pleased to circulate itsQ4 2020 Government Bond Data Report. This report provides a comprehensive data source with updated statistics on the Government bond primary and secondary markets in Europe (EU27+UK). Report highlights include: During Q4 2020, quarterly traded volume remained at EUR 65.2 bn, equal to the volume observed in Q3 2020. Overall, during 2020 full-year, average trading volumes were the highest since 2015 according to MarketAxess. The average bid-cover ratio (demand/amount allocated) was 2.50 in 4Q20, an increase of 12.3% (QoQ) from 3Q20 and an increase of 18.0% from 4Q19 (YoY). During 4Q20 there were 4 long-term credit rating upgrades for European countries and 1 downgrade, bringing the 2020 full year total to 8 upgrades and 4 downgrades. There were 9 exits and 3 entries of banks to the European Primary Dealer system between August 2020 and January 2021, affecting sovereign debt markets in 7 countries. There are now 15 European sovereign issuers, representing two-thirds of European countries which have an active PD system, at the lowest or below the lowest number of Primary Dealers on record. The unprecedented funding demands during 2020 have meant that a record EUR 3,675 bn of bonds and bills were issued throughout 2020 full year, the largest issuance volume of any year on record. Most recently, however, there has been a partial normalisation in issuance volumes of European (EU+UK) bonds and bills issuance with EUR 614.5bn issued throughout 4Q20, which represents a decrease of 37.3% (QoQ) compared to 3Q20, and an increase of 31.0% (YoY) compared to 4Q19. Outstanding amount of EU green government bonds surpassed EUR 75bn during 4Q20 in which EUR 14.5bn of green bonds were issued – the highest quarterly issuance volume of green government bonds in Europe to date. Volumes were driven primarily by the inaugural issuance of the green German bund (EUR 5.0bn), and tap issuance in the French, Belgian and Hungarian green bonds, which raised outstanding volumes of European green government bonds to EUR 75.7bn. There is some degree of evidence of small green premia relating to green bond issues within Belgium, France and Ireland. Green bond yields in jurisdictions and time periods considered in the report have been consistently below that of the conventional yield curve. Auctions of green securities in H2 2020 in Belgium saw enhanced levels of demand, as measured by high relative bid-cover ratios, suggesting investor appetite of green sovereign bonds in Belgium may have increased during the Covid-19 pandemic.
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