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European High Yield & Leveraged Loan Report Q1 2017
31 May 2017
The AFME High Yield Division is pleased to circulate the Quarterly Data Report for the first quarter of 2017 (the “Report”) The Report contains European leveraged finance market trends for the first quarter of 2017, which includes issuance and credit performance figures for the high yield and leveraged loan markets. Key highlights: European leveraged finance issuance (leveraged loans and high yield bonds) increased in 1Q’17 to €86.5 billion, a 50.5% increase from €57.4 billion in 4Q’16 and almost double the €43.5 billion issued in 1Q’16. This was the highest quarterly issuance since 2Q’14. Leveraged loan issuance increased to €50.8 billion in the first quarter of 2017, up 19.9% q-o-q (€42.4 billion in 4Q’16), up 54.2% y-o-y (€33.0 billion in 1Q’16). This was the highest quarterly total since the financial crisis. Most of the loans issued in 1Q’17 were 1st lien loans; there were no mezzanine loans and one 2nd lien loan financed. Pricing spreads for institutional loans widened by 12 basis points (bps) q-o-q and by 13 bps y-o-y while spreads for pro rata loans tightened by 27 bps q-o-q but by 12 bps y-o-y. Primary high yield issuance in 1Q’17 totalled €35.7 billion on 76 deals, a 136.8% increase from 4Q’16 (€15.1 billion on 41 deals) and a 237.4% increase from 1Q’16 (€10.6 billion on 22 deals). The proportion of USD-denominated issuance increased to 41.3% of all issuance in 1Q’17, compared to 29.1% in 4Q’16 and 28.2% in 1Q’16. Issuance for refinancing and/or repayment of debt in developed market Europe decreased to €11.8 billion, representing 42.8% of all issuance in 1Q’17, up from €4.6 billion (45.4% of total) in 4Q’16 and from €1.3 billion (14.1% of total) in 1Q’16. In emerging market Europe, no high yield debt was issued for refinancing and/or repayment of debt in 1Q’17. Credit quality: According to S&P, upgrades exceeded downgrades in developed market Europe (37 upgrades to 16 downgrades), a much better ratio than 26 upgrades to 33 downgrades in 4Q’16 and 20 upgrades to 40 downgrades in 1Q’16. It was the lowest downgrade percentage of a total since 2Q’14.Seven bond-related defaults were reported in the first quarter of 2017, six in developed market Europe and one in emerging market Europe.Speculative-grade default rates stood at 2.1% according to S&P (up from 1.4% at end-December 2016) and 2.5% according to Moody’s (up from 2.1% at end-December 2016).
Securitisation Data Report Q1 2017
31 May 2017
AFME is pleased to circulate its Q1 2017 Securitisation Data Report. Main findings: In Q1 2017, EUR 36.7 billion of securitised product was issued in Europe, a decline of 38.9% from Q4 2016 and a decline of 35.7% from Q1 2016.Of the EUR 36.7 billion issued, EUR 16.3 billion was placed, representing 44.5% of issuance, compared to the 51.9% of issuance in Q4 2016 and the 25.4% of issuance in Q1 2016. Net issuance was negative for the first quarter of 2017, with EUR 1.24 trillion outstanding at the end of Q1 2017, down 2.7% from the prior quarter. Of this, approximately EUR 709.3 billion, or 57%, was retained. Credit quality: Upgrades outpaced downgrades in Q1 2017, with upgrades concentrated in European CLOs and prime RMBS. European asset backed commercial paper (ABCP) issuance was EUR 82.3 billion in Q1 2017, a decline of 12.5% QoQ and 14.1% YoY. Multiseller conduits continue to dominate as the largest category of issuer in the ABCP market, particularly from Ireland and France.
Prudential Data Report Q1 2017
25 May 2017
The report provides a timely update (as at March 2017) on the progress of EU GSIBs in implementing the Basel III capital and liquidity standard. The report also illustrates the recent performance of the debt and contingent convertibles (CoCo) markets for banks in Europe. Main findings: EU GSIBs increased their end-point CET1 ratio to 12.9% in 1Q17, from 12.4% in 4Q16. The aggregate increase was driven by a combination of profits retention and accumulation of external capital raised from markets. All EU GSIBs improved their end-point CET1 ratios during the quarter. EU banks have raised a total of €34.4bn in fresh capital from markets as of May 2017, above the level raised for the full year in 2016 (€31.9bn). European banks issued a total of €7.7 bn in CoCo bonds during 1Q17, 51.2% above the issued volume in 1Q16 (€4.9bn) and 56.1% above that of 4Q16 (€5.1bn). CoCo bonds risk premia have continued to decrease during 2017, with average option-adjusted spreads reducing to levels not seen since July 2014. The improved risk perception is consistent with the continued build-up of capital cushions by banks from markets and internal sources, internal restructuring and deleveraging, and stronger solvency positions to absorb economic shocks and unexpected losses.
Equity Primary Markets and Trading Report Q1 2017
28 Apr 2017
Key highlights: Equity underwriting (IPOs, follow-ons and convertibles) on European exchanges accumulated a total of €56.9 bn in proceeds in Q1 2017, a 41% increase from the value originated in Q4 2016 (€40.4 bn). The increase was largely driven by an 84% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) growth in secondary (follow-on) offerings. IPO proceeds declined 50.2% compared to the volume originated in Q4 2016, although grew 31.9% against Q1 2016. IPO proceeds on Junior Markets increased 37.8% from the volume of Q4 2016. Completed Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) of European companies totalled €193.2 bn in Q1 2017, a decrease of 36.8% from the value of completed deals in Q4 2016 (€ 305.7 bn). The decline was driven by a 57% QoQ decrease in intra-European deals and a decrease of 54% QoQ in strategic deals. Private Equity-backed deals (or Sponsor deals) grew 106% against the volume of Q4 2016. Equity trading activity on European main markets and MTFs generated a total of €2.93 in turnover value in Q1 2017, a slight increase of 2.5% from the value traded in 4Q 2016 (€ 2.85 tn). Market capitalisation of European listed shares stood at € 12.6 tn at the end of Q1 2017, an increase of 3.8% from the market value at the end of 2016 (€12.1 tn).
Julio Suarez
AFME Securitisation Data Snapshot: Q1 2017
20 Apr 2017
Key highlights: In Q1 2017, EUR 36.7 billion of securitised product was issued in Europe, a decrease of 38.8% from Q4 2016 (EUR 60.0 bn) and a decrease of 35.6% from Q1 2016 (EUR 57.0 bn) Of this, EUR 16.3 billion was placed, representing 44.4%, compared to EUR 31.2 billion placed in Q4 2016 (representing 52.0% of 60.0 EUR bn) and EUR 14.5 billion placed in Q1 2016 (representing 25.4% of 57.0 EUR bn)
Government Bond Data Report Q4 2016
15 Mar 2017
AFME is pleased to circulate its Q4 2016 Government Bond Data Report.This report provides a comprehensive data source with updated statistics of the Government bond primary and secondary markets in Europe (EU28).Among the main findings of this report:Main findings: Average daily trading volumes of EU government bonds increased 16% QoQ in 4Q16, although with notable differences between countries.For 2016FY, average daily trading volumes decreased 7.2% YoY, continuing the annual decrease observed in 2015 (-8.4% YoY). Decrease in number of Primary Dealers (PDs): The number of PDs decreased over the last year in 10 of the 23 EU jurisdictions with PD systems; increased in 6 countries; and remained the same number in the remaining 7 EU Member States. In 2006 there were on average 22.6 PDs in EU countries, comparable with 19.2 in 2011 and 18.2 in 2017. (For the EU countries where information has been consistently compiled since 2006). European Government bond gross issuance totaled €2.54 TN in 2016, a decrease of 2.6% from the volume originated in 2015 (€2.61 TN). Of the instruments issued in 2016 through auctions, average bid-cover ratios increased steadily in each quarter of the year, from a 6-year low in 1Q16. Continued improvements to fiscal balances led to further credit ratings upgrades in 4Q16. Three EU countries had their long-term credit ratings upgraded during the quarter and one country was downgraded.For 2016FY, six EU countries were upgraded, the same number of countries downgraded.
Prudential Data Report Q4 2016
9 Mar 2017
AFME is pleased to circulate its Q4 2016 Prudential Data Report. The report provides a timely update (as at December 2016) on the progress of EU GSIBs in implementing the Basel III capital and liquidity standard. The report also illustrates the recent performance of the debt and contingent convertibles (CoCo) markets for banks in Europe.Key highlights: In 2016, EU GSIBs increased their end-point CET1 ratio from 11.8% in 4Q15 to 12.3% in 4Q16. The improvement was driven by a combination of balance sheet restructuring and to a lesser extent from internal capital generation through profits retention and from external capital raised from markets. European banks issued €23.5bn in CoCos during 2016 (€19.5bn by EU banks). New issuance was below 2015’s volume (€34.3bn, €27.4bn of which were raised by EU banks. Banks have continued to restructure their balance sheets and their RWA positions. EUGISBs have decreased their RWAs by 5.9% over the last three years, while the proportion of market risks on total RWAs has decreased from 8.1% in 1Q14 to 5.6% in 4Q16 Box: secondary market for NPLs. The persistent high level of NPLs in some EU countries continues to limit the capacity of banks to fully support the economic recovery. A deeper secondary market of NPLs could contribute to a faster NPL adjustment. The volume of NPL market transactions remains low (€80bn in 2016 compared with €1tn in NPLs), with a minor participation of NPL securitisations with an issuance volume of €155m in 2016.
Julio Suarez
Securitisation Data Report Q4 2016
8 Mar 2017
AFME is pleased to circulate its Q4 2016 Securitisation Data Report. Main findings: in Q4 2016, EUR 59.0 billion of securitised product was issued in Europe, an increase of 27.0% from Q3 2016 but a decline of 18.9% from Q4 2015.Of the EUR 59.0 billion issued, EUR 31.1 billion was placed, representing 52.7% of issuance, compared to the 46.2% of issuance in Q3 2016 and the 21.6% of issuance of 4Q 2015. for the full year, issuance was EUR 237.6 billion, an increase of 9.8% from the prior year. Of this, EUR 96.4 billion was placed, representing 40.6% of issuance. net issuance was positive for the fourth quarter of 2016, with EUR 1.27 trillion outstanding at the end of 4Q’16, up 2.1% from the prior quarter. Of this, approximately EUR 722.7 billion, or 56.7%, was retained. credit quality: Upgrades outpaced downgrades in Q4 2016, with upgrades concentrated in European CLOs and both prime and nonconforming RMBS. European asset backed commercial paper (ABCP) issuance was EUR 94.1 billion in Q4 2016, a decline of 30.7% QoQ and 17.6% YoY.
European High Yield and Leveraged Loan Report: Q4 2016
22 Feb 2017
Issuance highlights: European leveraged finance issuance (leveraged loans and high yield bonds) increased in 4Q’16 to €54.6 billion, a 2.5% increase from €53.3 billion in 3Q’16 and more than double the €25.6 billion issued in 4Q’15. The quarterly increase was led by leveraged loan issuance, which increased by 33.8% QoQ while high yield bond issuance decreased by 36.5% QoQ. for 2016FY, European leveraged finance issuance reached €202.7 billion, an increase of 18.5% from €171.1 billion in 2015. Leveraged loan issuance increased by 60.4% y-o-y to €121.3 billion (the highest annual volume since 2007) while high yield bond issuance decreased by 14.7% y-o-y to €81.3 billion in 2016. Issuance: Leveraged Loans in 4Q’16, €12.9 billion of amend-and-extend (“A&E”) loans were financed, a large increase from €2.7 billion in 3Q’16 and €0.9 billion in 4Q’15. Despite the surge in 4Q’16, A&E loans issuance fell by 20.7% to €18.5 billion in 2016 from €23.3 billion in 2015. refinancing and/or repayment of debt were the largest use of proceeds in 4Q’16 with €29.4 billion followed by leveraged buyouts with €6.0 billion and acquisitions with €2.9 billion. For 2016FY, the top use of proceeds mirrored 4Q’16: refinancing and/or repaying of debt ($65.6 billion), leveraged buyouts ($25.9 billion), and acquisitions ($24.4 billion). there were no mezzanine loans and four 2nd lien loans financed in 4Q’16. For 2016FY, only one mezzanine loan was issued (€0.1 billion) with €1.3 billion in 2nd lien loans and the remainder €120.0 billion in 1st lien loans. European CLO outstandings, including SME deals, increased by 13.0% to €194.6 billion in 4Q’16 from €172.2 billion. Non-SME CLOs increased by 19.8% to €105.0 billion in 4Q’16 while SME CLOs increased by 6.0% to €89.6 billion. Year-over-year, SME CLOs increased by 31.2% while SME CLOs decreased by 5.3%. Issuance: High Yield Bonds high yield issuance for refinancing and/or repayment of debt in developed market Europe decreased to €4.9 billion (48.3% of all issuance in 4Q’16), down from €11.2 billion in 3Q’16 (53.3% of total) but up from €1.4 billion in 4Q’15 (11.4% of total). In emerging market Europe, €0.7 billion was issued for refinancing and/or repayment of debt in 4Q’16 down from €0.8 billion in 3Q’16 but up from no deals issued for that purpose in 4Q’15. for 2016FY, high yield issuance for refinancing and/or repayment of debt was €31.7 billion in developed market Europe (46% of the total issued) and €1.4 billion in emerging market Europe (11% of the total), up 89.0% and 854.7%, respectively, from 2015. the proportion of USD-denominated issuance decreased to 29.0% of all issuance in 4Q’16 compared to 40.2% in 3Q’16 and 36.8% in 4Q’15. For 2016FY, USD-denominated deals totaled €33.8 billion (41.6% of total issuance), almost unchanged from €33.9 billion, or 35.5% of total, in 2015. Credit Quality according to Fitch, leveraged loan default rates (by value) stood at 0.9% in December 2016, up from 0.5% in December 2015. Including C and CC rated issuers as if those had already defaulted, the rate was estimated at 1.9% in 2016. as of December 2016, S&P reported the trailing 12-month speculative-grade high yield default rate at 1.7% (2.3% at end-December 2015) while Moody’s reported the default rate to be 2.1% (3.6% end-December 2015). in 2016, 24 European high yield issuers defaulted— 16 in developed market Europe and eight in emerging market Europe. in 4Q’16 downgrades exceeded upgrades both in developed market Europe (33 downgrades to 26 upgrades) and in emerging market Europe (7 downgrades to 6 upgrades). The number of upgrades decreased slightly to 115 in 2016 from 119 in 2015 while the number of downgrades dropped sharply to 170 in 2016 from 211 in 2015 resulting in a much smaller downgrade to upgrade ratio in 2016.
Julio Suarez
AFME Securitisation Data Snapshot: Q4 2016
27 Jan 2017
In Q4 2016, EUR 59.0 billion of securitised product was issued in Europe, an increase of 26.9% from Q3 2016 (EUR 46.5 bn) and a decrease of 19.0% from Q4 2015 (EUR 72.8 bn) Of this, EUR 31.1 billion was placed, representing 52.7%, compared to EUR 21.5 billion placed in Q3 2016 (representing 46.2% of 46.5 EUR bn) and EUR 15.7 billion placed in Q4 2015 (representing 21.6% of 72.8 EUR bn) In Q4 2016, Pan European CLOs led placed totals followed by UK RMBS and UK Auto ABS:- Pan European CLOs increased from 4.6 EUR bn in Q3 2016 to 9.2 EUR bn in Q4 2016;- UK RMBS increased from 4.1 EUR bn in Q3 2016 to 5.6 EUR bn in Q4 2016;- UK Auto ABS increased from 0 EUR bn in Q3 2016 to 2.9 EUR bn in Q4 2016.
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