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Securitisation Data Report Q2 2017
13 Sep 2017
AFME is pleased to circulate its Q2 2017 Securitisation Data Report. Main findings: In Q2 2017, EUR 71.6 billion of securitised product was issued in Europe, an increase of 91.2% from Q1 2017 but a decline of 4.9% from Q2 2016.Of the EUR 71.6 billion issued, EUR 38.6 billion was placed, representing 54.0% of issuance, compared to the 44.0% of issuance in Q1 2017 and the 39.3% of issuance in Q2 2016. Outstanding volumes were essentially unchanged from the prior quarter at EUR 1.24 trillion outstanding at the end of Q2 2017. Of this, approximately EUR 714.6 billion, or 57.4%, was retained Credit quality: upgrades outpaced downgrades in Q2 2017, with upgrades concentrated in European CLOs and prime RMBS. European asset backed commercial paper (ABCP) issuance was EUR 68.4 billion in Q2 2017, a decline of 16.9% QoQ (from €82.3 billion in Q1 2017) and 43.0% YoY (from €120.1 billion in Q2 2016). Multiseller conduits continue to dominate as the largest category of issuer in the ABCP market, particularly from Ireland and France. Regulatory update: At the end of May 2017, the European Commission, European Parliament and the Council have reached the political agreement on the proposals for Simple Transparent and Standardised (STS) Securitisation framework. The attention has turned now to implementation and development of the secondary legislation.
Julio Suarez
Prudential Data Report Q2 2017
25 Aug 2017
AFME is pleased to circulate its Q2 2017 Prudential Data Report. The report provides a timely update (as at June 2017) on the progress of EU GSIBs in implementing the Basel III capital and liquidity standard. The report also illustrates the recent performance of the debt and contingent convertibles (CoCo) markets for banks in Europe. We have refreshed the layout and content. Please contact us if you have any comments or suggestions that can help us improve how we present this timely information. Main findings: EU GSIBs increased their end-point CET1 ratio to 13.4% in 2Q17, from 12.93% in 1Q17. The quarterly increase in CET1 ratio was driven by retained earnings (22bps), further RWA reductions including from large asset disposals by two banks (11 bps) and other factors including large rights issues by two banks (14 bps). EU banks have raised a total of €49.3bn in new capital from markets during the year (as of mid-August 2017), almost double the total accumulated during the full year of 2016 (€26.0bn). CoCo issuance on track to exceed 2016 full year issuance. European banks have issued a total of €22.7 bn in CoCo bonds during the year, just below the total issued in 2016FY (€23.5bn). Lower CoCo risk premia. Average coupons of the fixed rate CoCo instruments issued in the first half of 2017 stood at 6.42%, which represents a decrease from the coupons of the instruments issued in 2016 (7.54%). The decline has been largely driven by a decrease in risk premia (as measured by CoCo option-adjusted spreads, OAS), from 520bps on average in 2016FY to 440bps in 1H17.
European High Yield & Leveraged Loan Report Q2 2017
22 Aug 2017
The AFME High Yield Division is pleased to circulate the Quarterly Data Report for the second quarter of 2017 (the “Report”). The Report contains European leveraged finance market trends for the second quarter of 2017, which includes issuance and credit performance figures for the high yield and leveraged loan markets. Key highlights: European leveraged finance issuance (leveraged loans and high yield bonds) decreased in 2Q’17 to €72.9 billion, a 19.6% decrease from €90.6 billion in 1Q’17 but a 16.3% increase from €62.6 billion issued in 2Q’16. This was, however, the second highest quarterly issuance since 2Q’14 after the record issuance in 1Q’17. Leveraged loan issuance, including first lien, second lien, and mezzanine financing, decreased to €37.4 billion in 2Q’17, down 31.3% q-o-q (€54.5 billion in 1Q’17) but up 24.1% y-o-y (€30.1 billion in 2Q’16).In 2Q’17, only €2.0 billion of amend-and-extend (“A&E”) loans were financed, a significant decrease from €16.3 billion in 1Q’17 but an increase from €0.3 billion in 2Q’16.Pricing spreads for institutional loans tightened by 7 basis points (bps) q-o-q and by 37 bps y-o-y while spreads for pro rata loans tightened by 24 bps q-o-q and by 6 bps y-o-y. Primary high yield issuance in 2Q’17 totalled €35.4 billion on 79 deals, a 1.9% decrease from 1Q’17 (€36.1 billion on 78 deals) but a 9.1% increase from 2Q’16 (€32.5 billion on 56 deals).The proportion of USD-denominated issuance increased to 45.4% of all issuance in 2Q’17, compared to 39.1% in 1Q’17 but a decrease from 51.4% in 2Q’16.High yield issuance for refinancing and/or repayment of debt in developed market Europe decreased to €8.7 billion, representing 34.5% of all issuance in 2Q’17, down from €12.1 billion (43.3% of total) in 1Q’17 and from €14.1 billion (48.8% of total) in 2Q’16. In emerging market Europe, €0.3 billion in high yield debt was issued for refinancing and/or repayment of debt in the second quarter of 2017, which was an increase from no issuance for this purpose in both 1Q’17 and 2Q’16. Credit quality: According to Standard and Poor’s (S&P), in 2Q’17 upgrades exceeded downgrades in developed market Europe (29 upgrades to 26 downgrades), a slightly worse ratio than 37 upgrades to only 16 downgrades in 1Q’17 but more positive than 33 upgrades to 46 downgrades in 2Q’16. Seven bond-related defaults were reported in the second quarter of 2017, five in developed market Europe and two in emerging market Europe.Speculative-grade bond default rates stood at 2.1% according to S&P (unchanged from 2.1% at end-March 2017) and 2.8% according to Moody’s (up from 2.5% at end-March 2017).According to Fitch, the trailing 12-month European leveraged loan default rate stood at 1.4%, up from 1.0% at end-March 2017.
Julio Suarez
AFME Securitisation Data Snapshot: Q2 2017
31 Jul 2017
Key highlights: In Q2 2017, EUR 71.6 billion of securitised product was issued in Europe, an increase of 91% from Q1 2017 (EUR 37.4 bn) and a decrease of 5% from Q2 2016 (EUR 75.3 bn). Of this, EUR 38.7 bn was placed, representing 54% of the total, compared to EUR 16.5 bn placed in Q1 2017 (representing 44% of 37.4 EUR bn) and EUR 29.6 bn placed in Q2 2016 (representing 39% of 75.3 EUR bn). In Q2 2017, UK RMBS led placed totals followed by Pan European CLOs and German Auto ABS: - UK RMBS increased from 2.5 EUR bn in Q1 2017 to 17.3 EUR bn in Q2 2017. This included one exceptionally large transaction, Ripon Mortgages plc, at 11.9 EUR bn (of which 11.0 EUR bn was placed); - Pan European CLOs increased from 5.8 EUR bn in Q1 2017 to 13.2 EUR bn in Q2 2017; - German Auto ABS increased from no placed issuance in Q1 2017 to 2.7 EUR bn in Q2 2017.
Equity Primary Markets and Trading Report: 1H 2017
18 Jul 2017
AFME is pleased to circulate its Equity Primary Markets and Trading Report for the first half of 2017 (1H 2017). The report collates the performance of the equity market in Europe in areas such as issuance, Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A), trading and valuations. Key highlights: Equity underwriting (IPOs, follow-ons and convertibles) on European exchanges accumulated a total of €127.9 bn in proceeds in 1H 2017, a 61% increase from 1H 2016 (€79.7 bn). The increase was led by a 93% year-to-date (YtD) growth in follow-on offerings- the largest 1H volume since 2009; Increase of 11% YtD in proceeds from primary offerings (IPOs). Completed Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) of European companies totalled €476.9 bn in 1H 2017, a decrease of 9% from 1H 2016 (€521.5 bn) Fewer leveraged M&A transactions in 1H 2017, with a decline of 31% in the volume of transactions in 1H 2016; Growing appetite from APAC firms. Chinese firms represented 33% of total inbound M&A in 1H 2017. Equity trading activity onEuropean main markets and MTFs generated a total of €6.0 tn in turnover value in 1H 2017, a decrease of 6% from the value traded in 1H 2016 (€6.3 tn). Market capitalisation of European listed shares stood at €13.2 tn at the end of 1H 2017, an increase of 9% from the market value at the end of 2016 (€12.1 tn). Year-to-date variation of European Equity activity (EU 28 member countries and Switzerland) Source: Dealogic, Bats Chi-X, FESE, World Federation of Exchanges, LSEG, ECB, NASDAQ Nordic, Bucharest Stock Exchange and CEESEG - Prague
Government Bond Data Report Q1 2017
29 Jun 2017
AFME is pleased to circulate its Q1 2017 Government Bond Data Report. This report provides a comprehensive data source with updated statistics of the Government bond primary and secondary markets in Europe (EU28). Among the main findings of this report: Average daily trading volumesof EU government bonds increased 14% QoQ in 1Q17 and 16% YoY, with notable differences between countries (see chart below). EU average turnover ratio increased by 7% in 1Q17 against the previous quarter. European Government bond gross issuance totalled €684 bn in 1Q17, a decrease of 3.9% from the volume originated in 1Q16 (€712 bn). Of the instruments issued in 1Q 2017 through auctions, average bid-cover ratios (demand/amount allocated) was 2.07 in 1Q17, a decrease compared to 2.26 in 4Q16 and 2.08 in 1Q16. The maturity profile of EU sovereigns has continued to shift towards long-term debt securities. Over the last year, outstanding government bond debt with tenors of 15 years or above has increased by 4%, compared with an increase of 1% in 5-10 year bonds and a decrease of 0.2% for <5 year bonds. Long-term credit ratings were reaffirmed for the large majority of EU countries. One EU country (Cyprus) had its long-term credit rating upgraded during the quarter. There were no credit rating downgrades during the quarter. Quarterly change in Government Bond average trading volumes (1Q17 vs 4Q16) Selected European jurisdictions Source: AFME with information from European DMOs and other agency sources and Trax, a MarketAxess subsidiary
European High Yield & Leveraged Loan Report Q1 2017
31 May 2017
The AFME High Yield Division is pleased to circulate the Quarterly Data Report for the first quarter of 2017 (the “Report”) The Report contains European leveraged finance market trends for the first quarter of 2017, which includes issuance and credit performance figures for the high yield and leveraged loan markets. Key highlights: European leveraged finance issuance (leveraged loans and high yield bonds) increased in 1Q’17 to €86.5 billion, a 50.5% increase from €57.4 billion in 4Q’16 and almost double the €43.5 billion issued in 1Q’16. This was the highest quarterly issuance since 2Q’14. Leveraged loan issuance increased to €50.8 billion in the first quarter of 2017, up 19.9% q-o-q (€42.4 billion in 4Q’16), up 54.2% y-o-y (€33.0 billion in 1Q’16). This was the highest quarterly total since the financial crisis. Most of the loans issued in 1Q’17 were 1st lien loans; there were no mezzanine loans and one 2nd lien loan financed. Pricing spreads for institutional loans widened by 12 basis points (bps) q-o-q and by 13 bps y-o-y while spreads for pro rata loans tightened by 27 bps q-o-q but by 12 bps y-o-y. Primary high yield issuance in 1Q’17 totalled €35.7 billion on 76 deals, a 136.8% increase from 4Q’16 (€15.1 billion on 41 deals) and a 237.4% increase from 1Q’16 (€10.6 billion on 22 deals). The proportion of USD-denominated issuance increased to 41.3% of all issuance in 1Q’17, compared to 29.1% in 4Q’16 and 28.2% in 1Q’16. Issuance for refinancing and/or repayment of debt in developed market Europe decreased to €11.8 billion, representing 42.8% of all issuance in 1Q’17, up from €4.6 billion (45.4% of total) in 4Q’16 and from €1.3 billion (14.1% of total) in 1Q’16. In emerging market Europe, no high yield debt was issued for refinancing and/or repayment of debt in 1Q’17. Credit quality: According to S&P, upgrades exceeded downgrades in developed market Europe (37 upgrades to 16 downgrades), a much better ratio than 26 upgrades to 33 downgrades in 4Q’16 and 20 upgrades to 40 downgrades in 1Q’16. It was the lowest downgrade percentage of a total since 2Q’14.Seven bond-related defaults were reported in the first quarter of 2017, six in developed market Europe and one in emerging market Europe.Speculative-grade default rates stood at 2.1% according to S&P (up from 1.4% at end-December 2016) and 2.5% according to Moody’s (up from 2.1% at end-December 2016).
Securitisation Data Report Q1 2017
31 May 2017
AFME is pleased to circulate its Q1 2017 Securitisation Data Report. Main findings: In Q1 2017, EUR 36.7 billion of securitised product was issued in Europe, a decline of 38.9% from Q4 2016 and a decline of 35.7% from Q1 2016.Of the EUR 36.7 billion issued, EUR 16.3 billion was placed, representing 44.5% of issuance, compared to the 51.9% of issuance in Q4 2016 and the 25.4% of issuance in Q1 2016. Net issuance was negative for the first quarter of 2017, with EUR 1.24 trillion outstanding at the end of Q1 2017, down 2.7% from the prior quarter. Of this, approximately EUR 709.3 billion, or 57%, was retained. Credit quality: Upgrades outpaced downgrades in Q1 2017, with upgrades concentrated in European CLOs and prime RMBS. European asset backed commercial paper (ABCP) issuance was EUR 82.3 billion in Q1 2017, a decline of 12.5% QoQ and 14.1% YoY. Multiseller conduits continue to dominate as the largest category of issuer in the ABCP market, particularly from Ireland and France.
Prudential Data Report Q1 2017
25 May 2017
The report provides a timely update (as at March 2017) on the progress of EU GSIBs in implementing the Basel III capital and liquidity standard. The report also illustrates the recent performance of the debt and contingent convertibles (CoCo) markets for banks in Europe. Main findings: EU GSIBs increased their end-point CET1 ratio to 12.9% in 1Q17, from 12.4% in 4Q16. The aggregate increase was driven by a combination of profits retention and accumulation of external capital raised from markets. All EU GSIBs improved their end-point CET1 ratios during the quarter. EU banks have raised a total of €34.4bn in fresh capital from markets as of May 2017, above the level raised for the full year in 2016 (€31.9bn). European banks issued a total of €7.7 bn in CoCo bonds during 1Q17, 51.2% above the issued volume in 1Q16 (€4.9bn) and 56.1% above that of 4Q16 (€5.1bn). CoCo bonds risk premia have continued to decrease during 2017, with average option-adjusted spreads reducing to levels not seen since July 2014. The improved risk perception is consistent with the continued build-up of capital cushions by banks from markets and internal sources, internal restructuring and deleveraging, and stronger solvency positions to absorb economic shocks and unexpected losses.
Equity Primary Markets and Trading Report Q1 2017
28 Apr 2017
Key highlights: Equity underwriting (IPOs, follow-ons and convertibles) on European exchanges accumulated a total of €56.9 bn in proceeds in Q1 2017, a 41% increase from the value originated in Q4 2016 (€40.4 bn). The increase was largely driven by an 84% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) growth in secondary (follow-on) offerings. IPO proceeds declined 50.2% compared to the volume originated in Q4 2016, although grew 31.9% against Q1 2016. IPO proceeds on Junior Markets increased 37.8% from the volume of Q4 2016. Completed Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) of European companies totalled €193.2 bn in Q1 2017, a decrease of 36.8% from the value of completed deals in Q4 2016 (€ 305.7 bn). The decline was driven by a 57% QoQ decrease in intra-European deals and a decrease of 54% QoQ in strategic deals. Private Equity-backed deals (or Sponsor deals) grew 106% against the volume of Q4 2016. Equity trading activity on European main markets and MTFs generated a total of €2.93 in turnover value in Q1 2017, a slight increase of 2.5% from the value traded in 4Q 2016 (€ 2.85 tn). Market capitalisation of European listed shares stood at € 12.6 tn at the end of Q1 2017, an increase of 3.8% from the market value at the end of 2016 (€12.1 tn).
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