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Julio Suarez
Equity Primary Markets and Trading Report Q2 2018
27 Jul 2018
This report provides an update on the performance of the equity market in Europe in areas such as primary issuance, Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A), trading, and valuations. Key highlights: Equity underwriting (IPOs, follow-ons and convertibles) on European exchanges accumulated a total of €78.8 bn in proceeds in the first half of 2018, a 39% decrease from the value originated in 1H17 (€129.0 bn). Notwithstanding the year-to-date decline, IPO issuance in 1H18 increased by 19% against the amount issued in the first half of 2017. Completed Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) of European companies totalled €496.0 bn in 1H18, a decrease of 1% from 1H17 (€ 499.3 bn). This included large megadeals such as Bayer-Monsanto, which represented 12% of the total deal value (€59.1bn). The amount of announced M&A deals totalled €674.1 bn, a 45% increase from 1H17. This includes large megadeals such as Takeda Pharmaceutical -Shire plc (€65bn) and Walt Disney-Sky (€30bn). Equity trading activity on European main markets and MTFs generated a total of €6.2 tn in turnover value in 1H18, an increase of 4% from 1H17 (€6.0tn) MiFID II dark trading caps: On 7 March 2018, ESMA published the double volume cap (DVC) data files specifying the securities that surpassed the MiFID II limits of dark trading on EU venues. The files are updated on a monthly basis based on trading activity on EU venues for all equity-like instruments in the EU during a 12-month rolling period - From a Universe of 23,105 equity-like securities traded in the EU, 1,024 are currently suspended (as of July 2018) from dark trading either on specific EU venues (69 securities) or on all EU venues (955) after surpassing the MiFID II dark trading thresholds (4% of the total activity on a single dark venue, or 8% of total trading market-wide for suspension at EU level). - The number of banned instruments has increased during the year from 755 in March 2018) - The total of 1,024 instruments suspended from dark trading at the EU or trading venue level represents 4% of the Universe of equity-like instruments on ESMA’s DVC files (23,105) -The proportion of dark trading as a percentage of total turnover sharply decreased after the introduction of the MiFID II dark trading caps (from c9.5% of order book transactions in Oct-17 to below 4.5% in Jun-18). Domestic market capitalisation of European listed shares stood at € 13.3 tn at the end of 1H18, a decrease of 0.2% from the market value at the end of 4Q17 (€13.4 tn) Annual variation of European Equity activity (EU28 member countries and Switzerland): 1H18 vs 1H17
Julio Suarez
Prudential Data Report Q1 2018
13 Jun 2018
AFME is pleased to circulate its Q1 2018 Prudential Data Report. This report collates timely information on EU GSIBs’ prudential capital, leverage and liquidity ratios with updated information as at 31 March 2018. It also illustrates the recent performance of the debt and contingent convertibles (CoCo) markets and the funding structure for banks in Europe. Among the main findings of this report: The weighted average CET1, T1 and leverage ratios for EU GSIBs slightly declined during the quarter, due in part to permanent factors such as the implementation of the new accounting standard (IFRS9). The new accounting standard, effective from 1 January 2018, had a direct impact on classification and measurement of financial instruments’ fair values and impairment methodology. EU GSIBs decreased their end-point CET1 ratio to 13.1% in 1Q 2018, from 13.4% in 4Q 2017. The implementation of IFRS9 in 1Q18 had a weighted average impact of -24 bps on CET1 ratio. This impact is estimated assuming full adoption of the new accounting standard (notwithstanding that some banks have adopted transitional measures). End-point Tier 1 ratios decreased to 14.9% in 1Q 2018, from 15.1% in 4Q 2017. End-point Leverage ratios (LR) declined from 4.9% in 4Q 2017 to 4.7% in 1Q 2018. Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) improved at 143.3% on a weighted average basis in 1Q 2018, from 140.3% in 4Q 2017. Box 1 of this report (pages 22-26) summarises a recent AFME - PwC study on the “Impact of Regulation on Banks’ capital markets activities: an ex-post assessment”. Capital markets assets at a global level fell 39% from 2010 to 2016, with a more significant impact in some product segments like rates (-47%), credit (-50%) and equities (-43%). According to the study, regulation accounts for 67% of the total explained shrinkage in capital markets balance sheets of the banks in the study. Additionally, capital markets regulation costs 14 percentage points to banks’ capital markets ROE. EU banks have raised a total of €10.9 bn in new capital in the form of follow-on offerings, contingent convertibles (CoCo), and other convertible securities in the first five months of the year. This compares with €35.7bn raised during the first five months of 2017. EU GSIBs have continued to issue bail-inable senior non-preferred bonds, accumulating a total stock of €59.1bn as of 25 May 2018 (€26.4bn in 3Q17), as banks continue to prepare for the implementation of TLAC/MREL requirements.
Julio Suarez
Securitisation Data Report Q1 2018
6 Jun 2018
Main findings: In Q1 2018, EUR 57.4 billion of securitised product was issued in Europe, a decline of 22.7% from Q4 2017 but an increase of 42.7% from Q1 2017. Of the EUR 57.4 billion issued, EUR 31.5 billion was placed, representing 55.0% of issuance, compared to the 42.6% of issuance in Q4 2017 and the 42.0% of issuance in Q1 2017. CLO refinancing (“refis”) activity continued in the first quarter of 2018; according to Thomson Reuters LPC, the combined amount of European CLO resets and refinancings totalled EUR 4.3 bn in Q1 2018 (from EUR 4.8 bn in Q4 2017). More notable was the debut sukuk UK RMBS deal from Al Rayan in February 2018, Tolkien Funding Sukuk 1. Outstanding volumes declined slightly to EUR 1.20 trillion outstanding at the end of Q1 2018, a decline of 2.3% QoQ and a decline of 3.9% YoY. Credit quality: In Europe, upgrades outpaced downgrades in Q1 2018, with upgrades concentrated in European CMBS and prime RMBS. European asset backed commercial paper (ABCP) issuance was EUR 68.2 billion in Q1 2018, a decline of 9.1% QoQ (from €75.0 billion in Q4 2017) and a 17.1% decline YoY (from €82.3 billion in Q1 2017). Multiseller conduits continue to dominate as the largest category of issuer in the ABCP market, particularly from France. Regulatory update: After the publication of the “Simple Transparent and Standardised” (STS) securitisation Package in the Official Journal of the EU on 28 December 2017, the attention has turned now to the implementation and development of the related secondary legislation, including technical standards and guidelines. Solvency II: On 15 April 2018, the EC draft delegated regulation on Solvency II revision was published for a short consultation and it has been subsequently adopted by the EC on the 1 June 2018. Although there have been some positive developments in terms of lowering the capital charges for the STS senior positions (which are now comparable to those applying to corporates), the treatment of non-senior STS tranches and non-STS securitisation remains highly problematic and does not provide any incentives for insurer investors to return to the ABS market.
European High Yield & Leveraged Loan Report Q1 2018
21 May 2018
The Report contains European leveraged finance market trends for the first quarter of 2018, which includes issuance and credit performance figures for the high yield and leveraged loan markets. Key highlights: European leveraged finance issuance (leveraged loans and high yield bonds) decreased to €62.8 billion in 1Q’18, a 39.9% decrease from €104.5 billion in 4Q’17 and a 30.6% decrease from €90.5 billion issued in 1Q’17. The quarterly decrease in 1Q’18 was driven by both a 41.5% decrease in leveraged loan issuance and a 37.1% decrease in high yield bond issuance. Primary high yield issuance in 1Q’18 totaled €24.3 billion on 77 deals, a 37.1% decrease from 4Q’17 (€38.6 billion on 103 deals) and a 31.1% decrease from 1Q’17 (€35.3 billion on 88 deals). The proportion of USD-denominated issuance increased to 43.8% of all issuance in 1Q’18, up from only 18.7% in 4Q’17 and up from 37.5% in 1Q’17. High yield issuance for refinancing and/or repayment of debt in developed market Europe decreased to €5.2 billion, representing 27.9% of all issuance in 1Q’18, down from €14.3 billion (40.3% of total) in 4Q’17 and from €27.1 billion (30.9% of total) in 1Q’17. In emerging market Europe, €0.4 billion (7.4% of total) in high yield debt was issued for refinancing and/or repayment of debt in the first quarter of 2018, a decrease from €1.1 billion (34.4% of total) in 4Q’17 but up from no issuance for this purpose in 1Q’17. Leveraged loan issuance, including first lien, second lien, and mezzanine financing, decreased to €38.5 billion in the first quarter of 2018, down 41.5% q-o-q (€65.8 billion in 4Q’17) and down 30.2% y-o-y (€55.2 billion in 1Q’17). Refinancing and/or repayment of debt were the third largest use of proceeds in 1Q’18 with €10.2 billion, following acquisitions with €15.1 billion or 39.1% of total, and leveraged buyouts with €10.4 billion or 27.0% of total. In the first quarter of 2018, pricing spreads for institutional loans tightened by 2 basis points (bps) q-o-q and by 40 bps y-o-y while spreads for pro rata loans tightened by 18 bps q-o-q and by 133 bps y-o-y. Credit quality: As of March 2018, S&P reported the trailing 12-month speculative-grade default rate at 2.1%, a slight decrease from 2.4% end-December 2017 and unchanged from 2.1% end-March 2017. Moody’s reported the trailing 12-month speculative-grade default rate in March 2018 to be 2.4%, down from 2.6% end-December 2017 and from 2.5% end-March 2017.Three bond-related defaults were reported in the first quarter of 2018, all from U.K. based companies. Two defaults were due to distressed exchange and one firm filed for Chapter 11.According to S&P, in 1Q’18 upgrades exceeded downgrades in developed market Europe (22 upgrades to 20 downgrades), a slightly worse ratio than 47 upgrades to 26 downgrades in 4Q’17 and than 37 upgrades to 16 downgrades in 1Q’17. In emerging market Europe, there were 11 upgrades and no downgrades by S&P in 1Q’18 compared to 5 upgrades and 7 downgrades in 4Q’17 and no upgrades and 4 downgrades in 1Q’17.
Equities Data Report Q1 2018
26 Apr 2018
The report provides an update on the performance of the equity market in Europe in areas such as primary issuance, Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A), trading, and valuations. Key highlights: Equity underwriting (IPOs, follow-ons and convertibles) on European exchanges accumulated a total of €37.8 bn in proceeds in 1Q18, a 34% decrease from the value originated in 1Q17 (€57.1 bn).Notwithstanding the annual decline, IPO issuance in 1Q18 more than doubled the amount issued in the first quarter of 2017 Announced Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) of European companies totalled €338.5 bn, a 45% increase from 1Q17. This includes the announcement of large megadeals such as Sky-Comcast; E.ON SE- innogy SE; and Albertis-Atlantia/ACS.Completed M&A of European companies totalled €174.5 bn in 1Q18, a decrease of 20% from 1Q17 (€ 217.8 bn). The decline was in part driven by a 49% decrease in inbound M&A— particularly from lower deal value of inbound deals from APAC companies targeting European companies. Equity trading activity on European main markets and MTFs generated a total of €3.2 tn in turnover value in 1Q18, an increase of 8% from 1Q17 (€2.9tn). MiFID II dark trading caps: On 7 March 2018, ESMA published the double volume cap (DVC) data files specifying the securities that surpassed the MiFID II limits for dark trading on EU venues. A few observations from the first data batch: Of 18,425 equity-like securities, 741 are currently suspended from dark trading either on specific EU venues (15 securities) or on all EU venues (726). The instruments suspended are predominantly equity shares of large companies. 620 of the 741 instruments suspended are from companies with market capitalisation above $1bn. 304 of the 741 suspended instruments have UK ISINs (i.e. UK as the issuing country). Dark trading volume declined in the immediate aftermath of the DVC files publication, while the proportion of dark traded as large-in-scale (LIS) blocks has increased to c40% (from 12% in early 2017). Domestic market capitalisation of European listed shares stood at € 13.1 tn at the end of 1Q18, an increase of 1% from the market value at the end of 1Q17 (€13.0 tn). Annual variation of European Equity activity (EU28 member countries and Switzerland): 1Q18 vs 1Q17
Julio Suarez
Prudential Data Report Q4 2017
3 Apr 2018
AFME is pleased to circulate its Q4 2017 Prudential Data Report. This report collates timely information on EU GSIBs’ prudential capital, leverage and liquidity ratios with updated information as at 31 December 2017. It also illustrates the recent performance of the debt and contingent convertibles (CoCo) markets and the funding structure for banks in Europe. Main findings: EU GSIBs increased their end-point CET1 ratio to 13.5% in 2017, from 12.4% in 2016. End-point Tier 1 ratios increased to 15.1% in 2017, from 13.8% in 2016. End-point Leverage ratios (LR) improved from 4.7% in 2016 to 4.9% in 2017. Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) stood at 140.8% on a weighted average basis in 2017, from 132.1% in 2016. Box 1 of this report (pages 24-27) presents the results of a text analysis exercise of 120 earnings calls transcripts of selected EU GSIBs for the years 2012-17. “Basel”, “regulation”, and “digital” are among the key themes in recent earnings calls. “Digital” has gained significant importance as company management presents banks’ strategies for adapting to the digital world. “Tax” was topical in 4Q17 calls as analysts were interested in the impact of the US tax reform on banks’ earnings. EU banks raised €57.5 bn in new capital in the form of follow-on offerings, contingent convertibles (CoCo), and other convertible securities. This compares with €26.0bn raised during 2016 and €52.5 bn in 2015. EU GSIBs have increased the amount of senior non-preferred bonds, which take losses after subordinated notes and before preferred senior debt. EU GSIBs have recently issued a cumulative amount of €51.6bn as of March 2018 in bail-inable senior non-preferred bonds
Julio Suarez
Securitisation Data Report Q4 2017
27 Mar 2018
AFME is pleased to circulate its Q4 2017 Securitisation Data Report. Main findings: In Q4 2017, EUR 73.1 billion of securitised product was issued in Europe, an increase of 48.7% from Q3 2017 and an increase of 21.5% from Q4 2016. Of the EUR 73.1 billion issued, EUR 31.6 billion was placed, representing 43.2% of issuance, compared to the 47.3% of issuance in Q3 2017 and the 52.0% of issuance in Q4 2016. CLO refinancing (“refis”) activity continued in the fourth quarter of 2017, resulting in the asset class leading EUR volumes among placed asset classes in Q4 2017. According to Bank of America-Merrill Lynch, a little over half (55.6%) of all CLO issues in 2017 were in the form of a refi or reset. Outstanding volumes rose slightly to EUR 1.22 trillion outstanding at the end of Q4 2017, an increase of 1.3% QoQ but a decline of 4.3% YoY. Credit quality: In Europe, upgrades outpaced downgrades in Q4 2017, with upgrades concentrated in European CMBS and prime RMBS. European asset backed commercial paper (ABCP) issuance was EUR 75.0 billion in Q4 2017, an increase of 11.6% QoQ (from €67.2 billion in Q3 2017) and a 20.3% decline YoY (from €94.1 billion in Q4 2016). Multiseller conduits continue to dominate as the largest category of issuer in the ABCP market, particularly from France. Regulatory update: The STS Regulation, establishing the “Simple Transparent and Standardised” (STS) securitisation framework, and the related CRR Amendment, which form the new STS Securitisation Package, have been published in the Official Journal of the EU on 28 December 2017. Both texts entered into force on 18 January 2018, however, the date of application of both the STS Regulation and CRR Amendment is 1 January 2019. Attention has turned now to the implementation and development of the related secondary legislation, including technical standards and guidelines.
Julio Suarez
Government Bond Data Report Q4 2017
20 Mar 2018
This report provides a comprehensive data source with updated statistics of the Government bond primary and secondary markets in Europe (EU28). Report highlights include: 2017 EU government bond trading volume remained very similar to the level seen in 2016, with a slight decrease of 0.3%. This is consistent with the findings on a national level, as of the countries where trading volume data for full year 2017 is available, 6 countries experienced an increase in trading volumes and 6 experienced a decrease. The notable 4Q17 quarterly (78%) and annual (41%) increase in trading volumes for Italian government bonds was likely driven by a combination of the run up to the Italian general election in March 2018 and a credit rating upgrade in October 2017. BOX (found on page 7): Over €178 billion of outstanding government bonds are indexed to EURIBOR, with the Italian Government accounting for over €148 billion. There is some uncertainty over the future treatment of these bonds given the ongoing questions of whether EURIBOR will be complaint with the EU Benchmarks Regulation or sustainable with a quote driven calculation methodology from panel banks. Nine countries saw a quarterly increase (3Q17 to 4Q17) in weighted average years to maturity of outstanding government bonds of greater than 1%, with 5 of these countries from Central and Eastern Europe. There were 15 upgrades to the credit ratings of EU countries in 2017 compared to 2 downgrades, resulting in an upgrade/downgrade ratio of 7.5. This ratio is significantly higher than the equivalent value of 1.4 in 2016. The 2017 upgrade/downgrade ratio for government bond issuers was also higher than for securitisations and high yield bonds.
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