Government Bond Data Report Q3 2021 | AFME
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Data Research
Government Bond Data Report Q3 2021
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03 Dec 2021
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Author Julio Suarez Director
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This report provides a comprehensive data source with updated statistics on the Government bond primary and secondary markets in Europe (EU+UK).

 

Report highlights include:

  • European (EU+UK) bonds and bills issuance continue above pre-pandemic levels with EUR 815 bn issued throughout 3Q21, which represents a decrease of 13.3% (QoQ) compared to 2Q21, and a decrease of 17.1% (YoY) compared to 3Q20. In terms of YtD (Q1-Q3) volumes, European bond and bill issuance is down 11.6% (YoY) but up 46.1% compared to 2019.
     
  • Outstanding amount of European ESG government bonds reached EUR 216 bn. The UK and Spain both issued inaugural green bonds with volumes of GBP 10 bn (EUR 11.7 bn) and EUR 5.0 bn respectively during 3Q21, and Germany also issued a new green bund (EUR 3.5 bn). Most recently, the European Commission issued an inaugural green bond in 4Q21, raising EUR 12.0 bn under the NextGenerationEU (NGEU) scheme.
     
  • The EU’s NextGenerationeEU (NGEU) programme is set to significantly increase official sector issuance in coming years as European Commission cumulative bond issuance is anticipated to reach EUR 890bn by end-2026, including EUR 89.6 bn of social bonds already issued during 4Q20 to 2Q21 as part of the European Commission’s SURE scheme.
     
  • During Q3 2021, European quarterly traded volumes increased 1.7% (YoY) but decreased 15.9% (QoQ),  according to MarketAxess. Year to date European government bond trading (YtD; Q1-Q3) during 2021 is down 1.6% compared to 2020, but up 1.6% compared to 2019.
     
  • Eurozone 1Y inflation expectations continue to rise on the back of higher energy prices, supply chain frictions, and the general economic recovery. Eurozone 1Y market-implied inflation expectations were 1.8% in November 2021, as analysts’ consensus (according to Eikon) estimates a 1Y ahead annual inflation at 1.7% for 4Q21.
     
  • During 3Q21 there were 3 long-term credit rating upgrades for European countries and no downgrades (following 1 upgrade and no downgrades during 1Q21, 1 upgrade and no downgrades in 2Q21) bringing the full year total to 6 upgrades and no downgrades (there was 1 further upgrade in 4Q21 to date).
     
  • The average bid-cover ratio (demand/amount allocated) was 2.20 in 3Q21, a decrease of 8.6% (QoQ) from 2Q21 and an increase of 12.9% from 3Q20 (YoY).